The state of engineering, 2026

AI made your team faster.
Delivery got less stable.

Copilots and agents write code faster than teams review, test and release it. The research is in: more output, more warnings in the code, less stable delivery. Agile Analytics measures where that shows up in your loop — from the tools you already run.

−7.2%
delivery stability per 25% more AI adoption · DORA 2024
+30%
static analysis warnings after adopting Cursor · CMU 2026
30%
little or no trust in AI code · DORA 2025
Tickets in flight Stuck > 24h AI-assisted output Shipped
build flow · illustration
AI assist
Plan
12
Code
28
bottleneck
Review
41
QA
19
Ship
8
Illustration: more code goes in than the loop can check.illustration · not customer data
02 · What the research says

AI doesn't fix a team.
It amplifies what's already there.

DORA’s 2025 conclusion, from close to 5,000 respondents. Its 2024 report, from 39,000, shows the split: the work gets better, delivery gets shakier. Same tools, same engineers — the difference is whether anyone can see where the extra output goes.

● Google DORA · 2024 · 39,000 professionals

Better code. Less stable delivery.

Estimated change for every 25% more AI adoption. Documentation, code quality and review speed improved; delivery stability fell. In 2025 DORA found that throughput now rises with AI too.

Documentation quality
+7.5%
Code quality
+3.4%
Code review speed
+3.1%
Approval speed
+1.3%
Delivery stability
−7.2%
● What Agile Analytics measures

Measure where it lands.

Output is measured where it is typed. Value is measured where it ships. Agile Analytics reads Git, Jira, CI/CD and monitoring and puts the two side by side, per team:

  • FlowLead time, deployment frequency, Sprint Insights
  • Quality gatesChange failure rate, MTTR, Error Budgets
  • MaintenanceFeature vs. non-feature work, per sprint
  • PeopleDevEx surveys, interruptions, Kudos

Also in the picture: Carnegie Mellon followed 806 open-source projects that adopted Cursor (MSR 2026). Velocity rose for two months and then faded; static analysis warnings (+30%) and code complexity stayed up. Bain puts the typical gain from AI assistants at 10% to 15%, and finds the time saved often isn’t put to higher-value work, so it doesn’t show up as a return. Carnegie Mellon 2026 · Bain 2025

03 · How we see it

One loop. Three lenses.
One question: did it ship?

Engineering productivity isn’t a single number — it’s a flow. AgileEx, DevEx and OpsEx are the three lenses that make the whole loop measurable, so AI output is counted where it lands rather than where it was generated.

All lensesAgileExDevExOpsEx
illustration · one sprint
PlanCodeBuildTestReleaseReviewRefineBacklogDeployRunObserveAlertResolvePostmortemSLOLearnENGINEERINGone loopTHREE LENSESAgileEx · DevEx · OpsExbottleneck
04 · Quality gates for AI-assisted code

Speed is easy to see.
Quality has to be measured.

Four questions every team building with AI should be able to answer from data. Agile Analytics answers all four today.

Does output pile up at review?measured today

Lead time for changes and deployment frequency per team, from Git and CI/CD. Sprint Insights shows how much of each sprint actually ships as features. Review wait and PR size as first-class metrics are next.

Does stability hold?measured today

Change failure rate and MTTR from your deploys and incidents. Error Budgets and SLOs from your monitoring, with alerts when a budget burns. This is where DORA’s “higher instability” shows up first.

Is maintenance eating the sprint?measured today

Sprint Insights classifies Jira tickets as feature or non-feature work, so the share of each sprint that goes to maintenance rather than features is visible per team — and whether it moves as AI output grows.

What does the AI spend buy?measured today

US companies spent $4 billion on AI coding tools in 2025, up from $550 million a year earlier (Menlo Ventures), and almost nobody sets that against what shipped. The AI Impact page does: adoption per tool, and cost and return in euros per AI-assisted merge request, next to delivery speed and change failure rate.

05 · AI spend

Your AI bill,
per merge request.

Connect your AI vendors once. Every night Agile Analytics reads what they billed and sets it against the AI-assisted work that shipped and the hours your people booked. In euros, with the source next to every number.

Seats against useCopilot · Cursor

GitHub Copilot and Cursor report their seats and who used them. Twelve seats and eight people active this month is a number you can take to the renewal.

Seat fees apart from tokensper tool, per model

Licences on one side, token and agent spend on the other, per tool and per model: Claude Sonnet in Copilot, GPT-5 in Cursor, the Claude Code workspace. Converted at the ECB rate of the day.

Cost per AI merge requestper tool

Spend divided by the merge requests an assistant helped write, recognised from the Co-authored-by lines it leaves in commits. So Claude Code and Copilot can be compared on what they cost per change.

Return from booked hoursfrom your hours

Hours per merge request in each person’s AI-heavy months against their quieter months, from the hours they actually booked, valued at your hourly rate. Shown only when enough people take part to make it reliable.

Connects to
  • Anthropic: Claude API and Claude Code
  • OpenAI
  • Google Gemini, through your billing export
  • GitHub Copilot
  • Cursor
  • Any other tool, as a licence you enter

Vendors report use per person. We keep that only to link accounts to teams and never show it: an assistant’s use appears when five or more people used it, a team when five of its members did.

06 · How it works

Connect. Baseline. Compare.

No new process, no self-reporting. The data already exists in the tools your teams use every day.

ConnectStep 1

Access tokens you create and can revoke, for GitHub, GitLab or Bitbucket, Jira, your CI and your monitoring (CloudWatch, Google Cloud Monitoring). Slack for Kudos, if you want it.

BaselineStep 2

The first sprint gives every team its starting point: lead time, deployment frequency, change failure rate, MTTR, the feature-to-maintenance ratio.

CompareStep 3

Teams that lean on AI against teams that don’t. This sprint against last. The gates against their targets. The question “did it ship?” gets a per-team answer.

07 · Example · a team’s gates

Engineering productivity
has an SLA now.

A team sets targets for lead time, change failure rate and review turnaround, and Agile Analytics tracks every breach. The values below are an example of what that looks like — not customer data.

Lead time p50on target
4.2d
target ≤ 5d · example
Change failure rateat risk
12%
target ≤ 10% · example
Review turnaround < 24hbreached
62%
target ≥ 95% · example

Stop guessing.
Start measuring.

Connect Jira, your Git host and your CI. Your first sprint report shows where AI output waits, whether the gates hold, and how much of the sprint shipped — from your own data.

Sources